earn-moneyearn-moneyForexcancer

2008年1月18日金曜日

Is Japan still experiencing a recession? -

Yesterday, in Economics class we were discussing what recession is and countries that have been affected by it. My teacher mentioned that just a few years ago Japan, one of the wealthiest and most technologically advanced Asian countries suffered from a recession. He never actually mentioned though if Japan had ever successfully come out of it though. I was just thinking some more about the topic today because I m planning to move to Japan to finish my undergrad studies. For those who know the answer, has Japan been able to come out of a recession? If so how much have they recovered since then?

Recession? Almost YES. During recession, many people go to shrines/temples at the beginning of the year for quot;hatsumoude.quot; This year, it was seriously crowded. At that time, I felt we are being in recession. I didn t feel it when bubble economy had collapsed, though. I think it comes from the failure of government. If the Jimin Party lose power, Japan will recover soon. Japanese government intended to increase income disparity. Government thought that celebrities would lead economy. Then, celebrities have been increasing still now on. So, large commercial facilities have been increasing especially in Tokyo in spite of recession. I think Japanese economy is in chaos now. You can watch them at my channel on Youtube. I uploaded them as quot;hatsumoudequot; and quot;Tokyo night scene.quot; http://jp.youtube.com/jishow But, technology? I don t think it negative. I am a reseacher/engineer of nano-technology. Recession made investment negative. In addition, other Asian companies have been gaining power. As for consumer products, the price has priority. Then, we have been losing the share. Japanese makers had to change their strategy because labor costs and the aid of government were far from them. But, as for high-tech materials and production equipments, quot;made in Japanquot; has still power. If we stop exporting them, many high-tech products will be lost. For example, more than 70% of carbon fibers are made in Japan (almost 100% for high-tech products). And, more than half of solar panels, almost of polysilicon for semiconductor, 100% of some LCD components, etc. Moreover, do you know 35% of Boeing 787 are made in Japan? And, do you know the latest efficiency of Japanese photovoltaic power generation? If not, you should check the latest study. Now, oil is soaring. It makes everything soar. I think it changes technology. We have many technologies which did not utilized because of the cost matter. But the difference of costs are decreasing in these years because oil has been making everything expensive. Then, we can utilize those high-cost technologies now. Some projects have already been started in Japan. For instance, do you know quot;urban minequot;? Electronic products have many noble metals and rare metals. What will it bring us if we can recycle metals from discarded household appliances in a lower costs? It is quot;urban mine.quot; It is said that Japanese urban mine is the largest than any natural resources. We have the technology, and some factories have already started. As far as I know, Japan has the highest ecological technologies. I hope they will change the world in several years to stop environmental destruction. Maybe, recession is a chance for our innovation. And, these technologies are the keys for your question. I cannot tell you the detail, though.

Funny thing about Japan. In the 80s, their economic model was the buzy of the world. Everyone was saying that theirs was the way to go. Then, they hit a recession in the beginning of the 90s, and it was a permanent slump that lasted through the 90s and into 00. They are experiencing a period of economic sluggishness due to what the US, UK and EU are experiencing too. They revised their 08 GDP growth at the end of 07 to 2.0, but now they revised it again to 1.8. The original setup had them at 1.7 for 08. I do not see them in a recession as of yet, though there is still a likely hood of this. Their problem is the Bank of Japan rate is a mere .5%. They cannot lower their rate to stimulate the economy as it is virtually no-existant. If anything, they will raise their rates! Odd.

recession or not, lifestyles in Japan will not be dramatically altered with it, unless you become entangled in investing. look at the US, our economy is going through a terrible slump/ drop but the everyday people are still consuming, consuming, consuming and inflation hasn t kicked in enough for us to feel the strain (excluding gasoline, of course)

yes, the tech markets are crashing right now. Japan is on the high end in the tech markets and has been affected by this, people are buying less electronic wares.

They have not fully recovered from the recession. They ve been in a holding pattern. They have very low growth. They have had no major technological revolution. They no longer manufacture a good deal of th electronics people buy. They simply exist. Until the Japanese do something wonderful, they will continue to simply be there and not grow at all. If they begin to shrink due to the aging population (as we will too), Japan will return to a pre-war economy.

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